Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Can China engineer a soft economic landing?


Can China engineer a soft economic landing?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BT7JXgnoGU&feature=relmfu
The main argument in this vedio clip is that Chinese economy can make a soft landing by using policy tools and ability to increase consumptions.
Firstly, he analyze the component of Chinese economic growth, which are export and investment spending. Now export is affected by negative European recession, and investment spending is slowing down. That's why many people are concerning about Chinese economy.
Secondly, he point out although net export and investment spending are slowing down, there is another important thing that will help to facilitate a soft landing for Chinese Economy: Domestic Comsuption. He points out that Chinese officals will focus on consumption as Chinese major economic growth in the future five years. Nowadays, consumptions only counted as one-third of Chinese total economic growth. In the contrast, Consumptions is counted as 70 percent in American Economy. Therefore, he argues that there is a huge potential for Chinese domestic consumption to grow. 
In the end, he said that althought there is some uncertainty in Chinese future ecnonmic growth, but we have good reason to believe that Chinese economic can make a soft landing.
I feel this analyst's argument is very convincing. He analyst all the components of Chinese economic growth thoroughly. Also, he give us some numbers to support his argument, which is very important in financial market analysis.

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